The United States announced new, higher tariff rates this year. Tariffs can affect supply chains, investment, and firms’ ...

We show that the underlying source of inflation impacts financial market perceptions of the persistence of monetary policy ...

To better understand the potential impacts of AI on the economy, this analysis assesses workers likely to be exposed to AI on ...

Economic conditions in the Twelfth District were mixed during the October to mid-November reporting period. Employment levels ...

On the labor market, I don’t feel as confident we can get ahead of it. It’s vulnerable enough now that the risk is it’ll have ...

The SF Fed engages with businesses and communities across the region to gather real-time information on local economic ...

In this paper we exploit 150 years of tariff policy in the US and abroad to estimate the short-run effects of tariff shocks on macro aggregates. A careful review of the major changes in US tariff ...

In 2024, the San Francisco Fed and the Federal Reserve System Innovation Office launched the EmergingTech Economic Research ...

The U.S. economy has remained remarkably resilient this year, navigating uncertainty, changes in government policy, including tariffs, immigration, deregulation, and taxes, an AI-driven technology ...

We study the pass-through of corporate taxes into consumer prices, leveraging 1,058 municipal tax rate changes affecting 4,754 German firms. A 1 p.p. increase in a producer’s tax rate raises retail ...

Payroll job growth has slowed significantly in the past year. Slower job growth is typically associated with rising unemployment, yet the unemployment rate has barely budged, edging up from 4.2% in ...