According to household surveys, inflation expectations tend to move together with expectations for gasoline price changes.

Huiyu Li, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, shared views on the current economy and the outlook ...

Most housing research relies on a single-margin model where a single housing price relates to a single housing quantity. We ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was little changed during the July to mid-August reporting period. Employers largely maintained employment levels. Wages were up slightly. Prices rose ...

With the advent of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI), the scope of AI has increased dramatically, but its effect on labour productivity remains uncertain. Some innovations raise labour ...

The arrival of ChatGPT in late 2022 set off a wave of optimism about artificial intelligence and its potential to transform the economy. Yet actual productivity numbers seem to reflect a more modest ...

The China Cyclical Activity Tracker, China CAT, is an alternative measure of China’s economic growth based on research in Fernald, Hsu, and Spiegel (2020). The China CAT index measures fluctuations in ...

The Daily News Sentiment Index is a high frequency measure of economic sentiment based on lexical analysis of economics-related news articles. The index is described in Buckman, Shapiro, Sudhof, and ...

Economic activity in the Twelfth District was little changed during the July to mid-August reporting period. Employers largely maintained employment levels. Wages were up slightly. Prices rose ...

Following decades of secular decline, many estimates of r∗—the natural or steady-state short-term real interest rate—have risen roughly 1 percentage point since 2020 in the United States. The most ...

This data series is part of the Center for Monetary Research. Market-Based Monetary Uncertainty provides daily indicators measuring the uncertainty about future short-term interest rates based on ...

The weekly Labor Market Stress Indicator (LMSI) tracks state-level labor market developments in real time to better understand labor market conditions as they evolve. The measure is built from weekly ...