Trump, inflation and CPI
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The stock markets were unanimously pleased with the latest CPI inflation print. Check out my key takeaways from the latest CPI inflation report.
Here's what new data from the producer price index says about where inflation is headed, according to economists.
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Investor's Business Daily on MSNCore CPI Inflation Tops 3%, But It Won't Stop The Fed; S&P 500 Rises (Live Coverage)
Wall Street expected the impact of Trump tariffs to be a bit more mild in July, after CPI inflation data for June showed a 0.5% jump in core goods prices, excluding autos, which was the biggest increase in two years. Intel INTC is leading the S&P 500 early Tuesday after CEO Lip-Bu Tan got a vote of confidence from President Trump.
Consumer prices rose 2.7% in July from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, the same as the previous month and up from a post-pandemic low of 2.3% in April. Excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core prices rose 3.1%, up from 2.9% in June.
Year-over-year, used vehicle prices rose by 4.8%, the seventh month in a row of year-over-year increases, and the biggest one yet. Apparel and footwear are largely imported and tariffed. The CPI for apparel and footwear inched up a hair by 0.07% month-to-month and was down 0.2% year-over-year.
Inflation held steady in July as tariffs threatened to drive prices higher, CPI report reveals. But an underlying inflation measure picked up
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Key inflation rate shows biggest rise in 6 months, CPI shows, but Fed rate cut still appears in play
A key measure of consumer prices in July posted the biggest increase in six months, suggesting inflation is showing some upward pressure from tariffs but perhaps not enough to deter the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates soon.
Follow live coverage of the July consumer price index report, released earlier today. Inflation rose by 2.& in the month as higher tariffs took effect.
"We expect core CPI to rise by 0.32%M in July (3.04%Y), up from 0.23%M in June," forecast Morgan Stanley. "Our base case remains that most of the tariff-related price effects will materialize over the summer. However, risks are tilted towards a more gradual and persistent upswing in monthly prints through year-end."
The Consumer Price Index, which measures inflation, rose 2.7% on an annual basis in July, slightly cooler than forecasted. Prices, however, continue to be impacted by Trump's tariffs.
Despite a gradual inflation uptrend, the data aligns with Fed projections, keeping a September rate cut in play as the most likely outcome at the next FOMC meeting.